ESTIMATING THE INCIDENCE OF SEVERE ACUTE RESPIRATORY INFECTIONS (SARI) IN FOUR SENTINEL HOSPITALS BY MEANS OF CAPTURE-RECAPTURE METHOD WITH TWO DATA SOURCES
Abstract:
SARI surveillance was implemented in Romania in the fall of 2009 during the 2009 pandemic influenza virus A (H1N1). There were designated as sentinel 4 counties and Bucharest and a total of 12 sentinel hospitals. SARI surveillance continued in the 2010-2011 season, in a total number of 8 sentinel counties and Bucharest and a total number of 26 sentinel hospitals (hospitals for infectious diseases, pediatrics, pulmonology, emergency hospitals). Objective: To estimate the incidence of SARI and assessing the completeness of detecting such cases, between 15 November 2010 and 27 February 2011 (15 weeks of surveillance) in four hospitals in Bucharest and Iaşi, designated as sentinel for SARI surveillance, as well as assessing the level of reporting the detected cases. Method: capturerecapture method with two data sources was used to estimate SARI incidence between 15 November 2010 and 27 February 2011 (15 weeks of surveillance) and to assess the completeness of sentinel system as the primary source of data, in four sentinel hospitals: the “Grigore Alexandrescu” Emergency Hospital for Children, Bucharest, the “Victor Babeş” Infectious Diseases Hospital, Bucharest, the “Saint Mary” Emergency Hospital for Children from Iaşi, and the “Sf. Spiridon” Infectious Diseases Hospital, Iaşi. Results: In absolute numbers, the infectious disease hospitals reported a total of 20 of the 80 cases detected in the observation sheets, while the pediatric hospitals reported only 51 of the 476 cases detected in the observation sheets. This indicates that 1 in 8 cases have been reported in SARI surveillance system. By observing the proportion of 1 at 8, the actual number of SARI cases estimated for the 4 selected hospitals is 2228 (95% CI: 2009-2447). Overall, the calculated sensitivity of the surveillance system was of 33%. Conclusions: Although the sensitivity of SARI sentinel surveillance system 15 weeks after implementation was relatively low, it brought useful information by monitoring the severe cases of acute respiratory infection. The evaluation of the surveillance systems is an important action to improve their performance. Training the staff involved in surveillance is an important support function of the system.
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