FORECAST OF PHARMACY SALES WITH BROWN’S EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING
Abstract:
The present paper aims at improving the sale of pharmaceutical products, taking into account
the fact that Romania is and will continue to be a market of high potential in selling pharmaceutical
goods. We have used a mathematical pattern, i.e. Brown’s exponential smoothing method. Brown’s
exponential smoothing method consists in correcting predictions proportional to the deviation noted
between previous predictions and their accomplishment, each deviation being downward weighted as it
departs from the present. The prediction following the reference period is based on the algebraic sum of
the previous forecast and a percentage associated with adjustment error. This problem is solved with the
help of the WinQSB software; applying the Solve and Analyze function in the menu of the Forecasting
application of the WinQSB software leads to acquiring the outcomes of the predictions. The managers of
health care institutions should use the new information and communication technologies in order to plan
the activities that will contribute in reaching their proposed objectives, based on accurate forecasting
patterns.
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